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Chinese Growth Muted in May, But More on the Way?
Our China Activity Index growth was still muted at 2% y/y based on available May macro data, driven by (i) stronger domestic consumption, (ii) weaker exports abroad, (iii) little follow-through on budget/investment spending to date and (iv) a continued drag from property and construction activity.
But there are now bigger signs of "stimulus loading" in recent months. Both new bank lending activity and government debt issuance have jumped sharply, which should lead to more fiscal and quasi-fiscal spending in the second half. The external outlook remains clouded, of course, but we do look for more policy-led growth at home.
Chinese Growth Muted in May, But More on the Way? (PDF)
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