The forint has done very well indeed all through last year on light of weak demand, lower inflation and a supportive external balance, with a further rally in the aftermath of the elections.

We still like the fundamentals this year - but watch oil prices. The MNB is still in no hurry to ease, real interest rates are high and demand pressures are still muted, which keeps us in the carry trade. The main issue now is oil prices, which could meaningfully erode external surpluses going forward.

Meanwhile, as before there's no end to the equity rally. CEE stock indices are still "blowing the doors off" the rest of EM, in Hungary's case led by main listed name OTP Bank. As before, however, this is not a reflection of Hungarian macro trends at home, and earnings momentum is fading.