The common wisdom going into 2025 was already that the world is deglobalizing as the US and Europe pursue reshoring policies, unwinding the global production routes that run through China, Asia and other emerging markets – and the massive Trump tariff shocks last year have only intensified these concerns. Surely the global supply chain is under visible stress?

Nope. In fact the data have yet to show anything of the sort. The manufacturing supply chain is absolutely stable; services globalization continues to move forward over the past few years, and there's no sign of meaningful capacity exit from China as of yet.

As before, just something to keep in mind as you read the prevailing commentary on the "great unwind".