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Another Big Surplus, Another Round of Debate

China's trade surpluses have again raised eyebrows. Strong export and weak import numbers have delivered another big monthly surplus - and, predictably, the financial headlines are still all about mainland "hyper-competitiveness" and China flooding the world with excess capacity.

As before, however, it's not about exports. Mainland export momentum is no stronger than in the rest of EM (and the rest of the world) today, and indeed China has been gradually losing global market share at the margin over the past 12 months.

Rather, it's about the collapse of Chinese import spending. The real story is the ongoing drop in mainland imports as China pushes self-sufficiency policies across the spectrum. And this will continue to be a huge external theme going forward as China pushes to reduce dependency on the rest of the world.

Another Big Surplus, Another Round of Debate

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