Here is the latest iteration of our semi-annual emerging market macro risk framework, using end-2025 data. By our comparative metrics, the highest-risk EM economies today on a fundamental basis are Venezuela, Ukraine, Egypt, Romania and China. The lowest-risk are UAE, Singapore, Taiwan, Croatia and Hong Kong.

Our risk index can't capture everything, and its usefulness diminishes as you move towards the EM periphery and frontier - but among major markets we find its predictive power in terms of future growth prospects is useful, as the track record over the past few decades has shown. So it's very much worth having a look.