Since our last review the pressure on Bolivia has visibly eased at the margin, with lower black market FX premia and falling inflation in light of sky-high export prices and large external surpluses.

Meanwhile, the government continues to take baby steps in macro adjustment. They've announced initial changes to the exchange rate regime but have yet to follow through with a full liberalization or undertake serious budget austerity. And while IMF discussions are ongoing the timing and outline of a program are not clear.

The dollar sovereign market has already rallied dramatically, and as before it's difficult to call the market from here. If Bolivia steps up with a more aggressive adjustment program and full IMF support we could see spreads narrowing further - but if export prices fall and the government tries to "muddle through" there's also downside risk here.