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The Auto/Cement Theory of EM (Fall 2023)
Broad EM auto sales and cement production have been recovering at the margin over the past two quarters, despite the weak global outlook and the ongoing Chinese property collapse, led by an unusual surge in Chinese vehicle sales and a very strong India.
Unfortunately, we don't believe the Chinese auto rally will last, as poor sentiment and income trends in the rest of the economy start to exert a downward pull. And with exports falling and DM in "quasi-recession", we look for numbers to flatten out in the rest of EM (ex-India) as well, i.e., in our view we're not (yet) at the junction to be investing in broad emerging growth.
The Auto/Cement Theory of EM (Fall 2023)
Corporate Chartbook
Our semi-annual guide to EM listed corporate trends by charts and data.
EM Corporate Charbook (2022 Edition)How To Think About Emerging Markets (2022 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is "EM"? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong With Emerging Markets? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 4)
Four EM Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 6)
Life After China (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 7)
Macro and EM Equities (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 8)
Macro and EM Debt (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 9)
Macro and EM Currencies (How to Think About Emerging Markets 2022 Edition, Part 10)
How To Think About China (2023 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 2)
Explaining the Miracle (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 3)
The Most Important Sector in the Universe (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 4)
Debt Boom and Debt Bust (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 5)
Is There a New Growth Model? (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 6)
The Future of the Renminbi (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 7)
The Aging of China (How to Think About China 2023 Edition, Part 8)