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The EM Frontier Risk Numbers (Fall 2026)
Kuwait, Costa Rica, Albania, Serbia and Cambodia all show up at the "safest" end of our frontier EM macro risk metrics. By contrast, Bolivia, Lebanon, Iran and Bahrain are currently the riskiest economies in the index.
We caution against putting too much faith in quantitative risk metrics when applied to the EM periphery and frontier, given greater inherent macro volatility. But the extremes at both ends are still very telling.
The EM Frontier Risk Numbers (Fall 2026 Report)
How To Think About Emerging Markets (2026 Edition)
An opinionated guide to emerging markets
What is an Emerging Market? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 1)What's Wrong With EM? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 2)
Who Makes It, Who Doesn't (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 3)
Is Globalization Over? (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 4)
Four EM Growth Fallacies (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 5)
An Austrian Primer: Savings, Debt and Default (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 6)
Life After China (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 7)
Macro and EM Equities (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 8)
Macro and EM Debt (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 9)
Macro and EM Currencies (How to Think About Emerging Markets, 2026 Edition, Part 10)
How To Think About China (2025 Edition)
... and an opinionated guide to China
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 1)A State Economy or a Market Economy? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 2)
The End of the Miracle (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 3)
Property Boom and Property Bust (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 4)
Debt, Banks and the Budget (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 5)
The Future of the Renminbi and the Closing of China (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 6)
The Aging Crisis (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 7)
How to Follow Macro Policy (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 8)
Why Haven't I Made Money? (How to Think About China 2025 Edition, Part 9)
