By way of reminder, China's endlessly rising trade surpluses have not really been about strong exports - but rather weak imports, due to falling housing and construction demand at home and self-sufficiency policies aimed at reducing foreign exposures.

Suddenly, however, headline import growth is soaring, reaching 25% y/y in dollar terms in recent months. Does this mean that stimulus policies are working and that local demand is back?

Unfortunately no. The big import surge this year reflects a combination of rising resource prices and IT/electronics components headed "back out the door" to fuel US AI investment boom. Once we strip these out, other import spending is still flat. I.e., China is not there yet.