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Good News From Kenya
Kenya's most fundamental shortcoming has always been its extremely weak export economy - but now a surge in agricultural exports appears to be changing the picture over the past 12 months, with narrowing external deficits, a strengthening currency and sharply rising FX reserves.
How sustainable is this external improvement? We're not sure, and the country is still not out of "twin deficit" status, but the good news is that with ongoing IMF support and a light Eurobond repayment schedule over the next few years, Kenya has some time to play with.
Sovereign dollar credit spreads have already narrowed visibly over the past year, and if exports continue to rally we would not be surprised by further positive repricing ahead. Stay tuned.
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